In 2025, steel production in China dropped below the 1 billion ton mark, reaching 960.81 million tons. This is the lowest figure since 2018, indicating a decline in the industry and is 4.4% less than in 2024.
This is reported by Finway
Reasons for the Production Decline and Its Impact on the Industry
Since the second half of 2022, Chinese steel manufacturers have been facing profitability challenges. Experts cite the prolonged slowdown in the real estate market as the main reason, which has negatively affected steel demand. At the same time, in 2025, the profitability of enterprises improved somewhat, as many mills shifted their focus to producing flat products, particularly hot-rolled coils, which are in high demand in both domestic and foreign markets.
It is worth noting that steel exports from China reached record levels last year, exceeding 119 million tons, a significant portion of which was flat products.
Production Dynamics and Future Forecasts
In December 2025, steel production volumes in China decreased by 2.4% compared to November and by 10.3% year-on-year, totaling 68.18 million tons. This marked the lowest monthly figure since December 2020 and the seventh consecutive monthly decline. The reasons included annual maintenance activities at several metallurgical plants and traditionally weak demand during the winter period.
“According to the consulting firm Mysteel, last year an average of 54% of steelmaking enterprises were profitable, while in 2024 this figure was 36%”.
Analysts predict that steel production in China will continue to decline in 2026, although the rate of decline will be more moderate. Ge Xin, deputy director of Lange Steel, believes that steel output in 2026 will decrease by approximately 3%.