The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has revised its macroeconomic forecasts for 2025-2026, significantly lowering expectations for key economic indicators.
This is reported by Finway
Reduction of GDP and Investment Forecasts
According to updated data, the forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2025 has been cut from 2.5% to 1%, and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%. Expectations for investment activity have also been reduced: previously, a 3% increase in investments was anticipated for 2026, but now a decline of 0.5% is expected.
Budget Deficit and Foreign Trade
Against the backdrop of deteriorating domestic indicators, the Russian government has raised the planned federal budget deficit for 2025 for the second time this year. Previously set at ₽1.2 trillion (0.5% of GDP), it is now projected to reach ₽5.74 trillion (2.6% of GDP). To cover the deficit, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation plans to increase the national debt, raising the volume of net borrowings to ₽5.7 trillion, which is ₽2.2 trillion more than the previous plan.
Despite this, the external economic situation appears more optimistic: the surplus of foreign trade in goods in 2025 is expected to be $106.9 billion, significantly higher than the April forecast ($86.8 billion). The expected price of Brent oil in 2025-2027 is projected to be $70 per barrel (previously forecasted at $72 for 2026-2027).
According to information from Ukraine’s foreign intelligence, the Russian government has already approved the draft federal budget for 2026-2028 with a projected deficit of $54.6 billion. Additionally, for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia plans to reduce military spending: in 2025, it will decrease to ₽12.6 trillion ($150.5 billion) from this year’s peak of ₽13.5 trillion.
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has updated its macroeconomic forecast for 2025-2026, significantly worsening key indicators. According to The Bell, the main change is the reduction in GDP growth expectations: the forecast for 2025 has been revised from 2.5% to 1%, and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%. The investment forecast has also been lowered: instead of the previously expected 3% growth in 2026, a decline of 0.5% is now anticipated.