According to estimates from the Russian state bank VEB, the economy of the Russian Federation is in a prolonged decline throughout 2025. Bank analysts note that, when accounting for seasonal fluctuations, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the aggressor country decreased by 0.4% in the first two quarters of the year compared to previous periods, while in the third quarter it remained virtually unchanged.
This is reported by Finway
GDP Dynamics and Consumer Demand
In the first nine months of 2025, Russia’s economy showed growth in only three months, while a decline was recorded in four months, and in two months the indicator remained almost unchanged. The Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation reports that the annual GDP growth for the first nine months was 1%. However, the growth rate is significantly slowing down: while in the first quarter this figure reached 1.4%, in the second it was already 1.1%, and in the third quarter it dropped to 0.6%.
Domestic Market and Industry
In September 2025, a decrease in consumer demand was recorded in Russia, which had previously been a key driver of growth. Retail trade volumes are shrinking, turnover in public catering is decreasing, and passenger transport is declining, while the service sector remained at August levels. Industrial production in the country has been declining for most of the year – in five out of nine months, with a decline of 1% recorded in September. The results for the third quarter also showed negative dynamics in the industrial sector.
“If we adjust the data for seasonal factors, Russia’s GDP decreased by 0.4% in the first two quarters compared to the previous one, and in the third it remained virtually unchanged.”