Analysts predict that the price of Brent crude oil will decrease in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite the current upward trend observed this week. Amid changes in the global market, oil prices adjusted downward on Friday, August 29, but a positive trend is still evident for the week.
This is reported by Finway
Price Dynamics and Key Influencing Factors
Brent futures fell by 39 cents (0.6%) to $68.23 per barrel, while American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined by the same amount to $64.21. Nevertheless, Brent has increased by 0.6% over the week, and WTI by 0.8%.
The price situation is influenced by expectations surrounding the end of the driving season in the U.S., which traditionally comes with a decrease in demand. Additional uncertainty is created by instability in Russian supplies to the global market and actions by major producers increasing supply.
Geopolitical Factors and Future Predictions
During the week, the rise in oil prices was partly driven by successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, as well as a statement from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz regarding the impossibility of a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, weakening demand in the U.S. and increased production from OPEC+ are putting pressure on the market in the opposite direction.
“We expect that the increase in OPEC+ supplies and the seasonal decline in global refining activity starting in September will lead to a rise in global oil inventories in the coming months. We forecast Brent oil futures to fall to $63 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025,” said Vivek Dhahr, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Additional market tension was caused by Russian attacks on Kyiv on August 28, resulting in 23 fatalities. Following these events, there are speculations that the U.S. may impose stricter sanctions against Russia. Furthermore, the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on India and possible European actions regarding restrictions are being discussed.
The Chief Strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, a division of Nissan Securities, Hiroyuki Kikukawa, noted that uncertainty remains in the market regarding the further actions of the U.S. and Europe concerning sanctions against Russia, as well as the potential impact of trade measures between the U.S. and India.