The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has revised its expectations regarding the official dollar exchange rate in the country. According to the new budget declaration, in 2025, the average exchange rate of the American currency will be 43.3 hryvnias per dollar. This is a significant improvement compared to the previous government forecast, which indicated that this figure would remain at 45 hryvnias.
This is reported by Finway
Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate
Experts explain the positive changes by the high foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine and the stability of international financial support for the country. For instance, Taras Kozak, president of the UNIVER investment group, notes that Ukraine regularly receives foreign currency assistance, which the government subsequently sells to ensure the domestic circulation of hryvnias.
“There are foreign currency expenditures in the budget, such as the purchase of weapons, but the majority of budget expenditures are in hryvnias. Given that the National Bank does not plan to quickly liberalize foreign trade and there are restrictions on the outflow of currency from the country, the government believes that there will be enough foreign currency for the NBU to maintain the exchange rate with a slight devaluation,” he explained the government’s actions.
Additionally, Kozak emphasized that currently, the National Bank is spending foreign currency reserves more slowly than financial assistance is arriving from abroad. According to him, the current stock of foreign currency will be sufficient at least until mid-2026.
Forecast for Dollar Exchange Rate Dynamics in the Coming Years
The budget declaration also anticipates a gradual increase in the official dollar exchange rate in the coming years. The estimated average annual rates are as follows:
- 2025 – 43.3 UAH/dollar;
- 2026 – 44.7 UAH/dollar;
- 2027 – 45.2 UAH/dollar;
- 2028 – 45.6 UAH/dollar.
At the same time, the government and the National Bank predict that thanks to financial support from international partners and the presence of significant reserves, the dollar exchange rate will remain relatively stable, without sharp fluctuations or large-scale devaluation of the hryvnia.