The first week of winter in the currency market was marked by moderate stabilization of the hryvnia, with a slight strengthening trend towards the end of the period. After a brief weakening of the national currency on December 2, when the exchange rate reached 42.3413 UAH per dollar, the hryvnia gradually strengthened, reaching 42.18 UAH per dollar by December 5. Overall, for the week, it gained 8 kopecks, which is approximately 0.19% compared to the figure on December 1.
This is reported by Finway
“Overall, for the week, from the opening level on Monday (42.29 UAH/$) to the closing on Friday (42.24 UAH/$), the hryvnia strengthened by 5 kopecks, with the most significant strengthening occurring in the middle of the week,” noted Anna Zolotko, a board member and director of the treasury operations department at Unex Bank.
Exchange Rate Dynamics in the Cash and Interbank Markets
In the cash market on the first day of winter, the rates at bank counters were 42.01/42.54 UAH per dollar. On Tuesday, these figures remained almost unchanged at 42.03/42.55 UAH per dollar. From the middle of the week, a gradual decline was observed: on Wednesday — 41.95/42.47 UAH per dollar, on Thursday — 41.91/42.41 UAH per dollar, and on Friday — 41.83/42.37 UAH per dollar. This dynamic indicates the preservation of liquidity and moderate volatility in the market, with spreads remaining quite narrow.
In the interbank market, the week started at 42.29 UAH per dollar. Throughout Monday, the hryvnia slightly weakened, closing the day at 42.36 UAH per dollar. On Tuesday, a moderate strengthening was observed, with trading ending at 42.30 UAH per dollar. The most significant dynamics occurred on Wednesday: the hryvnia strengthened by 18 kopecks from 42.30 to 42.12 UAH per dollar, with a maximum of 42.31 and a minimum of 42.11 UAH per dollar. On Thursday, the rate remained stable at 42.15 UAH per dollar, while on Friday, a slight weakening was observed, closing at 42.24 UAH per dollar.
Volumes of Currency Interventions and Forecasts for the Next Week
At the end of the first week of December, the volume of net currency interventions reached $1,093.6 million — nearly double (90%) that of the first week of November ($576.40 million) and the highest figure of the year. A higher level of sales was only observed in February, when the volume of interventions amounted to $1,191.3 million.
The forecast for the second week of December suggests that the market will operate under a balance of supply and demand shaped by exports and imports. Midweek may see more noticeable fluctuations, while closer to the end of the week, there could be both moderate weakening amid increased demand for currency and strengthening with the stabilization of currency flows. The actions of the National Bank, fiscal operations of the government, results of state auctions, volumes of export earnings, and international assistance will also influence the exchange rate. Additionally, the geopolitical situation and changes in sentiment in global markets could quickly alter the direction of the exchange rate.