The joint nuclear exercises of Russia and Belarus, which concluded on May 21, demonstrated the increasing influence of the Kremlin over Belarusian territory and highlighted the Russian Federation’s ability to use Belarus for its own military interests. This is noted in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
This is reported by Finway
“Exercises involving Russian nuclear weapons deployed on Belarusian territory underscore the extent to which Russia has absorbed Belarus under its effective control. The Belarusian constitution previously stated that Belarus is a non-nuclear state, but the country amended its constitution in 2022, abandoning neutrality and non-nuclear status, likely under pressure from the Kremlin and its influence on decision-making in Belarus. These exercises reflect the degradation of Belarusian sovereignty and the growing capability of Russia to use Belarus as a springboard for its own military purposes,” the report states.
Conducting Exercises and New Security Challenges in the Region
On May 18, Belarus announced the start of joint nuclear exercises with Russia, and the next day, Russia announced the commencement of its nuclear maneuvers. On May 21, as the exercises were concluding, the defense ministries of both countries confirmed the delivery of nuclear munitions to Belarusian territory as part of these exercises. According to the Belarusian Ministry of Defense, missile units simulated launches at designated targets.
At the same time, unlike previous joint military maneuvers, the parties did not disclose the legend of the exercises, nor did they reveal the purpose of the simulated launches by Belarusian units.
Political Context and Ukraine’s Reaction
Alexander Lukashenko stated that Minsk could be drawn into the war only in the event of aggression against Belarus: “if aggression is committed against us.”
Amid reports from Ukrainian intelligence about possible planning by Russia for offensive actions in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the strengthening of defense forces in this border area. Last week, Zelensky emphasized that Kyiv is noting attempts by Moscow to further involve Belarus in the war against Ukraine.
The President of Ukraine emphasized:
“We know that there have been additional contacts between the Russians and Alexander Lukashenko aimed at convincing him to join new Russian aggressive operations… Ukraine possesses details of the conversation between Russia and Belarus.”
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, also noted that the possibility of conducting operations from Belarusian territory in northern Ukraine poses a real threat.
The regime of Alexander Lukashenko regularly organizes military exercises amid strained relations with the West and the full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine, in which official Minsk supports the Kremlin. Although Belarus is not directly participating in the war, in February 2022, it provided its territory for the deployment of Russian troops and strikes on Ukrainian territory.