The National Bank of Ukraine has adjusted its forecast for the growth of gross domestic product in 2025, lowering the expected figure to 1.9% from the previous estimate of 2.1%. The main reasons for this revision are complications in the energy sector caused by attacks from Russia, as well as a labor shortage in the country.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of the Energy Crisis and Labor Shortage
According to the head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshny, economic growth showed signs of recovery in the third quarter of 2024, which was linked to active harvesting of early agricultural crops, stable consumer demand, and improvements in the energy situation by the end of September. However, recent infrastructure destruction and damage to gas extraction enterprises, along with the ongoing labor shortage, create serious obstacles for further business activity.
“However, the energy deficit caused by recent infrastructure destruction and damage to gas extraction facilities, along with the persistent labor shortage, will significantly limit business activity. In light of this, the NBU has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9% (down from the 2.1% July forecast, – UNIAN),” said Pyshny.
Prospects for Economic Growth in the Coming Years
The head of the NBU noted that gradual acceleration of economic growth is expected in 2026 and 2027. This will be possible due to increased harvests, as well as the activation of investments in the country’s recovery and the development of the defense sector. The gradual Euro-integration of Ukraine, stabilization of the energy sector, and changes in migration processes will play an important role in improving the investment climate.
According to updated forecasts, Ukraine’s real GDP may grow by 2% in 2026 (previously expected at 2.3%), and by 2.8% in 2027. These trends indicate a gradual recovery of the Ukrainian economy, provided that the internal situation stabilizes and further investments flow in.