The National Bank of Ukraine has maintained the key rate at 15.5% for the sixth consecutive time, continuing its policy of supporting the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments and the stability of the currency market. The regulator emphasized the importance of controlling inflation expectations for gradually bringing inflation closer to the target of 5% in the medium term.
This is reported by Finway
Inflation Dynamics and Expectations
According to the NBU, in the coming months, the pace of inflation decline will remain moderate due to the waning effect of the low comparison base. In November 2025, consumer and core inflation slowed to 9.3% year-on-year, but inflation expectations remain elevated.
“In the coming months, inflation will continue to decline, although at a more moderate pace due to the exhaustion of comparison base effects,” the regulator noted, reminding that in November, consumer and core inflation slowed to 9.3% year-on-year, yet inflation expectations remain elevated.
International Support and Economic Risks
Since the beginning of 2025, Ukraine has received $45.8 billion in official financing, with an additional $5 billion expected by the end of the year. Thanks to external support, it has been possible to maintain international reserves at an adequate level and finance the budget without additional issuance. At the same time, uncertainty remains regarding the further parameters of international assistance for 2026-2027.
Among the main risks to macroeconomic stability, the National Bank highlights the course of the war, potential additional budget expenditures, the consequences of damage to energy infrastructure, and the worsening labor shortage.
It should be noted that the NBU has kept the key rate at 15.5% since the beginning of March 2025. Prior to this, from mid-December 2024, the regulator raised the rate three times, and earlier it had remained at 13% for six months after a multi-step reduction from 25%, which occurred in seven stages starting in July 2023.