The National Bank of Ukraine, together with the Ministry of Finance, has prepared a contingency plan in case the volumes of international financial assistance for the country in 2026-2027 prove to be insufficient. This was reported by NBU Deputy Chairman Serhiy Nikolaychuk, who noted that such a scenario involves the implementation of a stricter monetary policy, which will significantly impact financial markets and the pace of economic recovery.
This is reported by Finway
Financial Needs and Budget Risks
According to Serhiy Nikolaychuk, in 2026, the state budget deficit could reach 19% of GDP. To ensure financial stability in 2026, Ukraine will need approximately 35 billion USD, however, about 13 billion of this amount currently lacks confirmed sources of funding. The need for financing in 2027 is expected to be even higher. Overall, the government estimates the required volume of external support at 75 billion USD for 2026-2027, of which 37.4 billion USD remains unconfirmed.
Forecasts for External Assistance
The NBU’s forecasts are based on the assumption that in 2026, Ukraine will receive about 35 billion USD in external financial assistance, and in 2027, about 30 billion USD. At the same time, Elena Bilan, an expert from the investment group Dragon Capital, believes that in 2025-2026, Ukraine could attract around 78 billion USD in international support, although part of this amount depends on the implementation of reforms, and a key uncertainty remains the size of additional funding.
“A plan for such a situation exists, but it involves a stricter monetary policy, which will affect the financial market and the pace of economic recovery.”