The National Bank of Ukraine has updated its inflation forecast for 2026, noting that it expects higher price growth rates than previously anticipated. The main reason for this revision is the extensive destruction in the country’s energy sector, which has led to additional pressure on the economy and businesses.
This is reported by Finway
Inflation dynamics in 2025–2026
According to the NBU, in December of last year, annual consumer inflation slowed to 8%. Among the key factors contributing to this trend, the regulator highlights the effects of high harvests, reduced pressure in the labor market, and a stable situation in the currency market.
“Low harvests and high vegetable prices in 2024 prompted producers to significantly increase sown areas in the new season. This ensured a substantial expansion of supply in 2025. At the same time, the low quality of certain vegetables and the worsening situation in the energy sector, which complicated their storage, stimulated sales. As a result, prices for the traditional vegetable set have accelerated their decline in recent months,” the document states.
The National Bank notes that in January, the growth rate of consumer prices remained moderate, and further declines in inflation are expected in the coming months. Among the main reasons are the residual effects of good harvests in 2025.
Impact of the energy crisis and future forecasts
At the same time, the NBU emphasizes that the consequences of destruction in the energy sector continue to exert pressure on prices. For businesses, this means additional costs to ensure energy independence. Meanwhile, reduced consumer activity due to power outages and a cold winter partially restrain price growth.
The regulator expects that in the second half of 2026, inflation will accelerate somewhat due to energy problems, and by the end of the year, its level will reach 7.5% (compared to 6.6% in the previously published forecast). At the same time, in 2027, inflation is expected to decrease to 6%, and by 2028, to 5%, which will correspond to the National Bank’s long-term target.