The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its forecast for GDP growth in 2026. The expected GDP growth has been lowered from the previous 1.8% to 1.3%. This decision is related to a number of factors that have affected economic dynamics at the beginning of the year.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Energy Attacks and External Support
According to the Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshny, the slowdown in economic activity at the beginning of 2026 is largely due to the consequences of Russia’s attacks on energy infrastructure and logistics facilities, which occurred against the backdrop of a very cold winter. The restrained budget policy, caused by delays in the receipt of external financial assistance, also had a negative impact.
“The additional impact was due to the restrained budget policy in light of delays in the receipt of external assistance. Economic activity somewhat revived as energy deficits decreased in the spring; however, overall in the first quarter, real GDP growth, according to NBU estimates, slowed to 0.2% year-on-year,” noted Pyshny.
Prospects for Economic Recovery
The National Bank believes that the gradual influx of international financial support will allow for increased budget expenditures, which will serve as a stimulus for the recovery of economic activity in the coming months. At the same time, considering the weak results of the first quarter, the difficult situation in the energy sector, and the impact of negative economic factors related to the war in the Middle East, the National Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%.
Despite this, NBU analysts predict a gradual improvement in the situation in 2027-2028. Under favorable conditions, including the normalization of the functioning of the Ukrainian economy, a reduction in geopolitical tensions, an increase in consumer demand, activation of investments, restoration of energy infrastructure, and increased harvests, real GDP growth could accelerate to 2.8-3.7%.
According to the State Statistics Service, in the previous year, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.8%. According to the January forecast of the NBU, a growth of 1.8% was also expected for 2026, but new circumstances forced the regulator to adjust its estimates.