Ukraine is preparing to adopt the budget for the next year, taking into account the duration of the war and the lack of conditions for its swift resolution. According to new forecasts, the country’s economy will grow more slowly, and inflation will remain high. The Cabinet of Ministers has sent official letters with corresponding recommendations regarding the pessimistic scenario of developments to budget fund managers.
This is reported by Finway
Economic Forecasts: Growth Rates and Inflation
The government is considering two possible scenarios for development – optimistic and pessimistic. Due to the absence of positive changes on the front, the main focus is on the pessimistic scenario, which anticipates the continuation of the active phase of the war at least until the end of 2026. Under these conditions, GDP growth in 2026 will be only 2.4%, significantly lower than the previously forecasted 4.5%.
Inflation, according to updated data, will reach 10.4% in 2026, 9.7% in 2027, and 8.3% in 2028. In comparison, inflation in Poland is projected to be between 1.7% and 4.5% depending on circumstances. Ukraine aims to gradually reduce this figure to 5%.
“The level of poverty in Ukraine has increased. If the gap between income and price growth continues to widen, it will lead to a worsening situation, particularly for the majority of the population,” stated economic sciences candidate Lyudmyla Cherenko in a conversation with OBOZ.UA.
Social Standards: Changes in Salaries and Pensions
The pessimistic scenario will also affect the size of social standards. The minimum wage in 2026, according to the updated forecast, will be 8,647 UAH (compared to the optimistic 8,688 UAH). Meanwhile, the actual subsistence minimum for an adult in June 2025 was 11,464.27 UAH (after tax – 8,421.94 UAH), so most people earning the minimum wage will remain below the poverty line.
The minimum pension in 2026 will increase to 2,595 UAH (the optimistic forecast predicted 2,564 UAH), but this is still insufficient to cover basic needs, as the actual subsistence minimum for pensioners is 7,091.8 UAH. This indicates that the vast majority of pensioners are also living below the poverty line.
The average salary in 2026 is projected to be 30,032 UAH (in the optimistic scenario – 30,240 UAH). In the following years, gradual growth is expected: in 2027 – up to 34,808 UAH, in 2028 – up to 39,436 UAH.
In 2027, if the security situation improves, economic dynamics may stabilize somewhat: GDP will grow by 4.7%, and in 2028 – by 4.5%. However, even under such conditions, this is less than what was anticipated in more favorable forecasts.