In July 2025, consumer inflation in Ukraine slowed to 14.1% year-on-year. Compared to June of this year, prices even decreased by 0.2%. According to the National Bank, this trend was the result of a rapid decline in vegetable prices due to the arrival of the new harvest, which caused the actual inflation to deviate from the previously published forecast of the regulator.
This is reported by Finway
Price Changes in Different Market Segments
In July, the rate of price growth for processed foods slowed to 18% year-on-year. Inflation in the services sector also decreased to 14%, which is explained by less active pressure from the labor market. In the non-food sector, prices increased by only 3.2%.
“The NBU’s forecast anticipates further inflation decline both by the end of this year and in the upcoming periods. Factors contributing to the reduction of inflation include monetary policy measures, gradual increases in harvests, and moderate external price pressure”
Factors Influencing Inflation and Future Expectations
According to former head of the National Bank Council Bohdan Danilyshyn, both inflationary and disinflationary factors affect the level of inflation in Ukraine. Among the factors stimulating price growth are high rates of producer price increases, adverse weather conditions, significant fiscal deficits, increases in certain tax rates, the recovery of deferred demand, and the devaluation of the hryvnia against the euro. At the same time, disinflationary influences include slowing economic growth (real GDP increased by only 0.8% over six months), stability of the exchange rate due to NBU interventions, a moratorium on raising certain utility tariffs, and demand restrictions due to ongoing military actions.
It is expected that in the coming months, the annual inflation rate in Ukraine will slightly decrease, which is related to the statistical base effect of the previous year.