In June 2025, Ukraine recorded a slowdown in inflation rates following its peak in May. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, consumer inflation in May reached 15.9% year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in the prices of raw food products. However, by June, the overall inflation rate began to decline, primarily due to a decrease in administrative inflation, allowing annual inflation to fall below 15%.
This is reported by Finway
Prospects for Further Inflation Decrease
The National Bank forecasts that inflationary pressure will continue to decrease in the second half of 2025, provided that energy supply stability is maintained and no new shocks occur in the food market. At the same time, inflation expectations among businesses and the public have somewhat worsened, yet they remain significantly lower than the actual rate of price increases.
Wages Are Rising, but Inflation Consumes Most of the Increase
The National Bank notes that the labor shortage continues to contribute to substantial growth in nominal wages in Ukraine. In 2025, this figure exceeds 20%. However, the real increase in household income remains limited due to high inflationary pressure.
Specifically, in the first quarter of 2025, real wages increased by only 9.2% year-on-year, indicating that over 50% of the noted increase in nominal wages was “eaten up” by inflation.
Inflation peaked in May 2025 and began to decline in June, according to the NBU’s Macroeconomic and Monetary Review.