According to an analysis prepared by the consulting firm Deloitte on behalf of the UNHCR, refugees from Ukraine play a key role in the development of the Polish economy. The report “Analysis of the Impact of Ukrainian Refugees on the Polish Economy” dispels common myths about Ukrainians being a burden on social assistance.
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Contribution to GDP and the Labor Market
Data from the Central Statistical Office, the National Bank of Poland, and Deloitte indicate that in 2024, Ukrainians contributed to a 2.7% increase in Poland’s GDP. Seven out of ten refugees are employed, and among female refugees, the employment rate reaches 70%, which is nearly equal to that of Polish citizens (72%). Single women head 67% of Ukrainian refugee families, often being far from their loved ones while working and supporting their children.
“Prices in stores are rising due to the war, due to inflation, and they live off social assistance and still complain. It’s just unfair,” said one respondent in the study “Poles on Ukraine and Polish-Ukrainian Relations,” published in January 2025 by the Meroshiewski Center.
Main Findings of the Study
- Main source of income — work. According to the SEIS survey, 80% of the income of Ukrainian households in Poland comes from wages or self-employment. Only 14% comes from Polish social benefits, and 4% from Ukrainian ones.
- Employment and wage growth. In 2024, the employment rate of refugees rose to 69% (up from 61% in 2023), and the median net salary reached 4000 zlotys — nearly at the national average.
- Social assistance — limited and universal. The most popular form of assistance is the 800+ (child benefit), received by 42% of families. Housing assistance is received by 5%, and disability support by 4% of families.
- Taxes exceed expenditures. In 2024, taxes and social contributions from refugees brought 47 billion zlotys to the Polish budget (2.7% of total revenues), fully compensating for the costs of social support.
- Additional boost for the economy. Without Ukrainian refugees, Poland’s GDP in 2024 would have been 2.7% lower. This figure is expected to rise to 3.2% by 2030.
- No negative impact on Poles. In regions with increased employment among refugees, employment among Poles also rose, and unemployment decreased, with no recorded drop in wages.
- Regular tax and contribution payments. Employed refugees pay full social contributions and taxes, significantly supporting the Social Insurance Fund.
- Filling the labor shortage. Ukrainians helped avoid labor market stagnation, allowing Polish workers to move to more complex and higher-paying positions, increasing economic productivity.
- Entrepreneurship and corporate tax payments. Ukrainian refugees not only work for others but also start businesses, paying income tax and VAT.
- Growth in domestic consumption. Over 800,000 Ukrainian households are increasing retail turnover and the tax base, which is also reflected in GDP growth.
Thus, Ukrainian refugees are not a burden on the Polish economy; on the contrary, they have become one of the key factors for its stable development and growth.