The International Monetary Fund has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 upwards, noting the resilience of global economic development despite significant trade challenges and increasing uncertainty.
This is reported by Finway
Growth Driven by the US, China, and Technological Investments
According to the updated IMF forecasts, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.3% this year, which is 0.2% higher than previously predicted in October. The main drivers of growth are the US and China, which are showing increased development rates. Overall, growth rates remain stable compared to the previous year, as the global economy gradually recovers from the impact of tariff restrictions.
Investments in information technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, play a crucial role in supporting growth. Manufacturing is still at a low level; however, the share of IT investments in the US GDP structure has reached its highest level since 2001. This has significantly strengthened overall investment flows and business activity.
Challenges in the Financial System and the Role of the AI Market
The increase in IT investments is most pronounced in the United States but also positively affects Asian technology exports. This boom reflects optimistic expectations from businesses and financial markets regarding the prospects of implementing cutting-edge technologies, particularly automation and artificial intelligence, to enhance productivity and profitability.
Favorable financial conditions and high profit levels have contributed to rising stock prices and allowed companies to expand capital expenditures. At the same time, investments are increasingly being financed through borrowed funds, which raises leverage levels.
This shift creates significant risks: higher leverage can amplify the negative effects of shocks if profits do not materialize or overall financial conditions worsen – this will impact companies and raise concerns about the stability of the broader financial system.
Moreover, company profitability is becoming more dependent on the depreciation schedules of equipment. Frequent updates of technology may reduce profit margins and require increased debt financing. This underscores the need for careful monitoring of leverage levels and their potential impact on the stability of the financial system.
Looking ahead, the current technological boom presents both opportunities for sustainable growth and risks of downturns. If artificial intelligence meets expectations for productivity enhancement, it could add an additional 0.3% to the growth rates of the US and global economies in 2026 compared to the baseline forecast. At the same time, if companies do not achieve the expected profits in the AI sector and investors lose confidence, a decline in global growth of 0.4% relative to the baseline scenario is possible.