The International Monetary Fund has presented an updated forecast regarding the development of the global economy for the coming years. According to the latest report, the pace of global economic growth in 2025 is expected to slow down to 3.2% compared to the anticipated 3.3% in 2024. In 2026, the growth rate is projected by the IMF to decrease to 3.1%.
This is reported by Finway
Differences Between Countries and Influencing Factors
In developed economies, GDP growth is forecasted to be around 1.5%. Meanwhile, in transition and developing countries, growth is expected to be slightly above 4%. The figures presented indicate a revision of the forecast upwards compared to the April estimate for 2025; however, the dynamics remain worse than anticipated before the policy correction.
The IMF notes that
“The global economy is adapting to a landscape altered by new political measures. Thanks to further agreements and a reset, some consequences related to tariff increases have been mitigated.”
Main Risks and Policy Recommendations
The Fund expects further declines in global inflation, but the pace of this process will vary by country. In particular, in the United States, inflation is likely to remain above the target level, and the risks of its increase persist. In other countries, the decline in inflation will occur more moderately.
The IMF emphasizes that the risks to global growth are currently skewed towards the downside. Among the main threats to economic stability are prolonged uncertainty, rising protectionist trends, shocks in the labor market, fiscal vulnerability, potential corrections in financial markets, and weakening institutions.
The IMF recommends that policymakers focus on restoring trust through the implementation of reliable, transparent, and sustainable policies. Fund experts advise combining trade diplomacy with macroeconomic adjustments and ensuring the independence of central banks. Special attention is suggested to be given to structural reforms, and when implementing industrial policy, all possible alternative costs and compromises should be considered.