According to the latest expert estimates, approximately 29 million people currently reside in the government-controlled territories of Ukraine, with a possible deviation of around one million. This was reported by Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, who noted that he leans towards the lower end of this range.
This is reported by Finway
“According to our expert assessments, the population in the controlled territory is about 29 million plus or minus a million. Personally, I tend to lean towards the lower end of this range,” the expert stated.
How is the Population Count in Ukraine Determined?
Although the last census was conducted back in December 2001, its results still serve as the basis for annual statistical updates. According to Oleksandr Hladun, the State Statistics Service updates its calculations every January 1, relying on data about birth rates, death rates, and migration. Birth registration is nearly one hundred percent accurate, while the accounting of deaths has minor inaccuracies due to cases where a person’s death is not reported. The largest discrepancies arise from migration processes—people often change their place of residence without registration, complicating accurate counting.
The situation regarding population accounting became even more complicated after 2014, when Ukraine lost the ability to account for data in Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine has led to a new wave of emigration and an increase in the number of uncontrolled regions.
The Impact of War and Emigration on Demography
Ukraine loses about 300,000 people each year due to natural population decline—mortality significantly exceeds birth rates, and this negative trend has been observed for over ten years. Demographer Vasyl Voskoboynyk emphasizes that such losses are critical for the country’s future.
Against the backdrop of a severe labor shortage, exacerbated by the war and demographic losses, Ukraine plans to revise the list of countries at migration risk and the rules for labor migration. The head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Budanov, announced that changes are planned regarding the attraction of foreign workers to partially compensate for the staff shortage.
At the same time, the Mayor of Kharkiv, Ihor Terekhov, strongly opposed the idea of mass recruitment of migrants to address the demographic crisis. He emphasized that the primary task of the state should be to bring Ukrainians back from abroad, rather than replacing them with foreigners.
Currently, a special working group is operating under the State Statistics Service, preparing official estimates of the population size at the beginning of 2026.