The Ukrainian government has released a forecast indicating that over the next three years, the average salary in the country will increase by approximately 5 thousand hryvnias each year. If this trend continues, by 2028 the average salary in Ukraine could exceed 39 thousand hryvnias.
This is reported by Finway
Main Scenarios for Economic Development
According to the Cabinet of Ministers’ resolution dated August 6, No. 946, approving the “Forecast of Economic and Social Development of Ukraine for 2026–2028,” two future scenarios are considered:
- Optimistic Scenario — anticipates a significant improvement in the security situation starting in 2026.
- Pessimistic Scenario — takes into account the continuation of full-scale military aggression from Russia.
Expected Salaries in 2026–2028
Under the optimistic scenario, the following growth in the average monthly salary is projected:
- 2026 — 30,240 UAH;
- 2027 — 35,268 UAH;
- 2028 — 39,758 UAH.
In the event that the pessimistic scenario is realized, the expected average salary figures are:
- 2026 — 30,032 UAH;
- 2027 — 34,808 UAH;
- 2028 — 39,436 UAH.
“According to the first forecast, an improvement in the labor market is expected during 2026-2028. The number of people engaged in economic activity aged 15-70 may increase from 13 million to 13.2 million.”
Additionally, a gradual improvement in the labor market is anticipated. Under the optimistic scenario, the number of citizens aged 15–70 engaged in economic activity will rise from 13 to 13.2 million.
Regarding the unemployment rate, under the positive scenario, it is projected to increase from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, after which a decline to 12.8% in 2028 may occur. Under the pessimistic scenario, an annual increase in unemployment is expected from 12.6% in 2026 to 12.8% in 2028.