Global oil prices are showing a decline following a US special operation that resulted in the abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. This has created uncertainty regarding the future of the world’s largest oil reserves held by the country.
This is reported by Finway
Oil Price Dynamics and Market Position
On Monday, the price of Brent crude oil, which is the international benchmark, fell by 0.5% to $60.44 per barrel. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, decreased by 0.6% to $56.97 per barrel.
Although Venezuela’s share of global oil production is less than 1%, the country holds about 17% of the world’s confirmed oil reserves. Due to US sanctions and a maritime blockade, Venezuelan exports are limited; however, if the political situation changes, supplies could significantly increase.
Currently, traders are assessing the potential implications of US intervention for the global oil market, while analysts warn of the risk of an oil supply surplus.
Expert Assessments and OPEC+ Reaction
“At least 200,000-300,000 barrels per day have already been removed from circulation, and this figure could be higher. In the near term, there is a risk that we will lose even more production,” said Sen.
Amrita Sen, founder of the consulting firm Energy Aspects, believes that the market is anticipating further price declines due to the potential return of oil products from Venezuela. MST Financial analyst Sol Kavanagh noted that market participants are tired of constant discussions about geopolitical risks that often do not lead to real supply disruptions.
Most experts predict that oil prices will continue to decline throughout 2026.
Despite the instability in Venezuela, OPEC+ countries have not announced any immediate changes to their strategy following Sunday’s scheduled policy update. Eight members of the alliance, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates, held a brief meeting and agreed to maintain a pause in production increases at least until April.
In the short term, production in Venezuela may further decline due to restrictions on the import of raw materials necessary for export. At the same time, in the medium term, traders expect a gradual increase in supplies from the country.
Against this backdrop, futures on US stock markets rose: on Monday, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.4%.