Experts at Galaxy Digital have stated that the year 2026 will be one of the most challenging for predicting Bitcoin’s dynamics due to the influence of macroeconomic and market factors. The experts note that political risks, economic uncertainty, and the unstable behavior of digital assets are putting pressure on the market.
This is reported by Finway
Options Markets and Bitcoin Volatility
According to Alex Thorn, head of the research division at Galaxy Digital, the upcoming year is characterized by particular unpredictability. He believes that the period of 2026 is “too chaotic to predict,” although the possibility of setting new historical highs cannot be ruled out. Thorn emphasizes that options markets currently assess nearly equal chances for various scenarios: by mid-2026, the price of Bitcoin could fluctuate around $70,000 or $130,000, and by the end of the year — between $50,000 and $250,000.
“BTC hit $250k by year-end 2027. The year 2026 is too chaotic to predict, although achieving new historical highs for Bitcoin in 2026 is still possible. Currently, options markets assess approximately equal probabilities of $70,000 or $130,000 by the end of June 2026 and equal probabilities of $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year.”
The Galaxy Research report, dedicated to forecasts for 2026 regarding cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, DeFi, and artificial intelligence, analyzes the prospects for institutional adoption of digital assets, as well as structural changes in the market.
Long-term Strategy and Optimism for Bitcoin
According to Thorn’s estimates, the market is currently in a phase of deep decline, and Bitcoin is struggling to establish a sustainable upward trend. He emphasizes that as long as the price does not stabilize above the range of $100,000–$105,000, there is a risk of further price declines.
The company has also paid special attention to derivative instruments. The pricing of Bitcoin options indicates almost equal probabilities for opposing price scenarios, reflecting the structural maturity of the market.
Thorn also highlights the decrease in Bitcoin’s long-term volatility due to the spread of institutional strategies, particularly options structures and yield programs.
Despite all the uncertainty, Galaxy Digital maintains a positive long-term outlook. The company believes that institutional adoption of Bitcoin will accelerate, and its integration into the portfolios of major investment platforms will ensure a steady influx of capital.
In conclusion, Galaxy Digital expects that by the end of 2027, the value of Bitcoin could reach $250,000.