In the coming weeks, the foreign exchange market in Ukraine will significantly depend on agrarians. Next week, economic and regulatory factors will influence the market, while other factors, such as the course of the war and PR campaigns regarding peace negotiations, will play a secondary role in ensuring stability.
This is reported by Finway
“In my opinion, informational speculation on the exchange rate due to the deadlock in negotiations will have the effect of a mayfly. It is worth acknowledging that we are currently in a mentally challenging time, as the war is exhausting society, and the prolongation of any negotiations to end the war has a depressing effect. However, the foreign exchange market is maximally protected from any non-economic influence,” said Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank.
Lesovyi also noted that during the next week, the monetary measures of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to support the hryvnia and control consumer prices will affect the exchange rate. In particular, fluctuations in the dollar will be minor and predictable. The expert outlined the likelihood that at the NBU Monetary Committee meeting on April 17, the discount rate may be raised to 16-16.5%. However, according to him, this decision will depend on the success of previous measures.
According to Lesovyi, agrarians will play an important role in the foreign exchange market, as the active sowing campaign encourages them to realize their currency surplus. This, in turn, will increase the supply of currency, allowing the regulator to reduce its influence on the market.
Forecast of Key Indicators of the Foreign Exchange Market
According to the banker’s forecasts, the key indicators of the foreign exchange market from April 14 to April 20 will be as follows:
- Currency fluctuation corridors: 41-41.6 UAH/USD and 44.5-45.5 UAH/EUR on the interbank market, as well as 40.7-41.5 UAH/USD and 44.5-45.5 UAH/EUR on the cash market;
- Daily exchange rate changes: on the interbank market – up to 0.05-0.15 UAH, in banks – up to 0.1-0.2 UAH, at exchange offices – up to 0.3 UAH;
- Average difference between interbank and cash market rates: 0-0.2 UAH;
- Weekly exchange rate deviations are expected to be within 1-1.5% of the initial Monday rate.
Lesovyi concluded that the overall situation in the foreign exchange market will remain stable: current exchange rate changes will not exceed permissible fluctuations, continuing under the control of the National Bank, which prevents uncontrolled changes in rates.