In July 2025, no significant upheavals are expected in the Ukrainian currency market. According to experts’ forecasts, the dollar rate will remain stable, ranging between 41.6 and 42.2 UAH per dollar. Specialists note that serious jumps or collapses of the American currency are not anticipated.
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Dollar Rate: Impact of Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations
Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, predicts that the National Bank of Ukraine will continue to control the situation in the currency market through a regime of “managed flexibility.” This allows for avoiding chaotic fluctuations in the exchange rate, and current changes will remain minor and mixed — there may be slight increases as well as decreases in the dollar’s value.
“Therefore, no global fluctuations in the exchange rate are expected in July, and the current fluctuations will be minor and mixed (rates may both rise and fall).”
Regarding inflation, the expert expects that in July its level will not exceed 0.5%, and on an annual basis, it may decrease to 13–14%. Under these conditions, the National Bank will likely keep the discount rate unchanged at 15.5% following the meeting on July 24.
What Will the Euro Rate Be in July
The situation with the euro rate appears less predictable. Taras Lesovyi emphasizes that the dynamics of the European currency are influenced by global quotes of the dollar/euro pair, as well as global economic and political events. Among the factors that may affect the rate, the expert mentions the possible introduction of new tariffs between the USA and the EU, responses from the European Union, as well as geopolitical conflicts, such as the war between Israel and Iran, which impact the cost of energy resources.
If external events develop favorably, the euro rate may approach the level of 1.05–1.1 dollars per euro. In the event of a worsening situation, the European currency could rise to 1.15–1.18 dollars. Accordingly, a wide range for the euro rate is forecasted for July — 46.5–48.5 UAH per euro.
In summary, experts believe that the currency market in July will remain quite active, but sharp strategic changes in the rate are not expected.