In the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, the dollar is expected to rise to 43–43.5 hryvnias by December 2025. It is predicted that the increase in the American currency over the year will be a moderate 2.3–3.5%. Experts believe that December will be a period of heightened activity in the foreign exchange market, linked to the holiday season and economic uncertainty.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of the Holiday Season and Year-End Payments
The director of the financial markets and investment activities department at Globus Bank, Taras Lesovyi, notes that the increase in demand for currency is traditionally driven by preparations for the holidays and gift purchases. Additionally, there is currently uncertainty in the energy sector and due to military actions, which also affects the market.
By the end of November, an increase in pre-holiday currency conversion is expected: citizens may exchange dollars previously acquired due to inflation for hryvnias for everyday needs. In December, an additional amount of hryvnias will enter the market due to the payment of year-end bonuses, rewards, and dividends. However, this year’s demand for currency will be noticeably lower than last year — in 2024, demand exceeded supply by 30–40%, while this year it is projected to be only 15–20%.
Forecast for the Dynamics of Hryvnia and Euro
According to Taras Lesovyi, the hryvnia may experience only controlled devaluation, with the dollar’s exchange rate remaining within 2.3–3.5%: from 42.02 hryvnias at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 43.5 hryvnias by the end of 2025.
“The euro, which primarily depends on the global dollar market, may rise by 13–16% from the starting figure of 2025, which is 43.7 UAH per euro. These figures indicate sufficient resilience of the national currency by the end of the year, despite external and internal risks,” said the expert.
According to these estimates, the national currency demonstrates relative stability, despite the challenges facing the economy.