In December 2025 – January 2026, Ukraine recorded the largest electricity shortage since the onset of large-scale aggression by the Russian Federation. This information was disclosed by Artem Vdovichenko, Deputy Head of the Economic Analysis Department of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department of the National Bank, during a thematic event organized by the Center for Economic Strategy.
This is reported by Finway
“We have not observed such large electricity shortages before,” he acknowledged.
Causes of the Record Electricity Shortage
According to the National Bank’s Inflation Report for January 2026, the actual electricity shortage in the fourth quarter reached 7%, while the previous regulator’s forecast anticipated a figure of 4%. According to Artem Vdovichenko, this is the average figure for the country, meaning that throughout the entire fourth quarter, it was not possible to meet 7% of the electricity needs. Overall, in 2025, the shortage was estimated at 2%. Such low annual figures are explained by favorable weather in the summer and reduced enemy activity regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, which allowed the economy to operate without energy shortages for a certain period.
However, starting from the autumn of 2025, the frequency of Russian attacks on energy facilities significantly increased, and by the end of the year, their number reached maximum levels. The shortage was exacerbated by an abnormally cold winter: the average temperature in Ukraine turned out to be four degrees lower than normal. This led to an increase in electricity consumption that could not be compensated for by either domestic generation or imports.
Impact of the Electricity Shortage on the Economy and Forecasts for 2026
As a result of extensive destruction in the energy sector, the National Bank was forced to revise its electricity shortage forecasts for 2026. According to updated estimates, in the first quarter, the shortage increased from 6% to 12%, and the annual forecast was raised from 3.3% to 6%.
The lack of electricity directly affects the pace of Ukraine’s economic growth. Artem Vdovichenko noted that the negative impact of the electricity shortage on GDP in 2025 was estimated at 0.2%. According to him, in the absence of such losses, the economy could have grown by 2%.