The Ukrainian agricultural sector may face significant financial losses due to the return of the European Union’s tariff quotas on wheat exports. According to Artem Solovyi, director of Grain Power, in the second half of 2025, the loss of foreign currency revenue from grain sales abroad could range from €120 to €280 million. This figure depends on global prices for grain crops.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Quota Reinstatement on Ukraine’s Agro-Exports
According to the expert, while this is not a critical blow for the entire agricultural export sector, losses in the wheat segment could reach about 15% of the industry’s revenue from the previous year. The reinstatement of quotas has already negatively affected purchasing prices at elevators, logistics processes, and the financial capacity of traders.
“According to the specialist, this is already impacting purchasing prices at elevators, logistics chains, and traders’ liquidity.”
Details of the Tariff Regime for 2025
From July 2025, after the completion of the full trade liberalization regime between Ukraine and the EU, pre-war tariff quotas defined by the Association Agreement will come back into effect. Regarding wheat, the European Commission has set a quota for duty-free exports at 583,000 tons – this is 7/12 of the annual norm.
Ukraine and the EU have already agreed on updating the terms of trade relations, but the new parameters will only take effect after the transition period ends, meaning existing restrictions will remain in place until the end of 2025. Ukrainian farmers may compensate for losses from reduced wheat exports by diversifying trade directions.