A noticeable increase in the official exchange rate of the US dollar is expected in Ukraine in the near future. According to experts’ forecasts, in August, the national currency may weaken to a level of 41.8–42.4 UAH per dollar. As of July 29, the National Bank set the official rate at 41.8 UAH, which exceeds the current figure by 2 kopecks. Thus, the dollar has already reached the lower limit of the predicted range.
This is reported by Finway
Key Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate
As noted by the head of the analytical department of “Financial Pulse,” Dilyara Mustafaieva, several key factors will determine the formation of the dollar exchange rate in August. Among them:
- National Bank Policy. The regulator will continue to adhere to a managed flexibility regime, conducting currency interventions to stabilize the market. The National Bank will use tools such as inflation monitoring, analysis of changes in currency demand, tracking the situation in external markets, and assessing the level of international currency reserves.
- Financial Support from International Partners. The stability of the state budget largely depends on external assistance. The pace of international support inflows also affects the size of currency reserves, which determines the National Bank’s ability to intervene in the currency market.
- Seasonal and Economic Factors. August is traditionally a period of active harvesting when agricultural producers sell currency to purchase fuel and equipment, which may temporarily increase the supply of dollars. However, the approaching heating season and the need to purchase energy resources may offset this impact.
- Export Situation. A decrease in exports to European Union countries due to new cooperation conditions may lead to a reduction in agricultural product exports to 80% of the levels seen in 2022–2024.
Risks and Prospects for the Currency Market
Dilyara Mustafaieva emphasized that without the emergence of new external shocks, fluctuations in the buying and selling rates of the dollar will remain moderate, and the spread between the interbank and cash markets will be small. However, a significant decrease in export revenues without expanding sales markets may increase pressure on the national currency.
“Therefore, it is critically important for Ukraine to expand its presence in other markets and increase foreign currency earnings. A decrease in export revenues without appropriate compensation through market expansion may exert additional pressure on the exchange rate,” she concluded.