In Ukrainian banks, a significant change in the cash dollar exchange rate is expected in the coming days. According to financial analysts’ forecasts, by the end of the current working week – by August 29 – the rate of the American currency will fluctuate between 40.9 and 41.9 hryvnias per dollar. As of the evening of August 25, banks were buying dollars at 41.1 UAH and selling them at 41.67 UAH, which may indicate a potential decrease in the buying rate and a simultaneous increase in the selling rate.
This is reported by Finway
Exchange Rate Dynamics in Banks and Exchange Offices
In exchange point networks, expert Oleksiy Kozyrev forecasts an increase in the dollar rate for both buying and selling. He notes that the rate in these structures will be within 41.1 to 41.8 UAH per dollar. For comparison, on the evening of August 19, the average rates in exchange offices were 40.97 UAH (buying) and 41.5 UAH (selling).
“The majority of exchange offices and banks will operate these days with a spread (the difference between selling and buying rates. – Ed.) ranging from 20 to 25 kopecks per dollar. Wholesale exchange offices will operate all week with their standard spread of 15-20 kopecks”
As the analyst points out, the coming days in the Ukrainian currency market promise to be very dynamic. The situation will be influenced by the end of the reporting period for clients and banks, when businesses actively settle accounts for the month to prepare balances for September 1. This traditionally increases the volume of currency operations and overall market activity.
Key Factors Influencing the Currency Market
- Reporting Period and Bank Balancing: During these days, companies strive to settle with their partners by the end of the month to maintain positive balance indicators for counterparties and tax authorities. For banks, this is also an important period, as the National Bank of Ukraine publishes financial reports, and each institution aims to demonstrate stability to its clients and shareholders.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: The expert emphasizes that rumors and news regarding a possible meeting in the format of “Trump – Zelensky – Putin” directly influence the behavior of the currency market. Uncertainty in this area can cause additional fluctuations in the exchange rate.
- National Bank Policy: According to Kozyrev, at the end of the month, the National Bank of Ukraine is interested in maintaining exchange rate stability and aims to prevent sharp fluctuations that affect the revaluation of gold and foreign exchange reserves and the balance of the regulator itself. Therefore, it is expected that the NBU will restrain the growth of quotes at the initial stages.
- Holiday in the USA: September 1 is Labor Day in the United States, so American banks will be closed. This will affect the timing of settlements: Ukrainian companies and banks may conduct dollar transactions at the end of August or postpone them to Tuesday, September 2.
The analyst considers it more likely that the main currency operations will take place on Thursday and Friday, August 28-29, as August 29 is the last working day of the month, and large transactions are usually not planned for this date.