At the beginning of April, the currency market is expected to experience relative calm. According to banker Taras Lesovyi, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank, it is already evident that over the next week, exchange rate fluctuations will remain within the range of 41.4-41.8 UAH per dollar.
This is reported by Finway
Lesovyi noted that by the end of March, the dollar exchange rate may rise by a maximum of 1% compared to February, and since the beginning of the year, it will not exceed the levels from which it started. The main factors influencing the currency market remain:
Key Factors Influencing the Currency Market
- Monetary Measures of the National Bank: These are aimed at reducing price pressure and maintaining the stability of the hryvnia. From December to March, the regulator raised the discount rate three times from 13% to 15.5%.
- NBU Strategy: The “managed flexibility” regime helps balance supply and demand through currency interventions, reducing the amplitude of exchange rate changes.
- Economic Circumstances: The gradual development of the economy amid war also plays its role.
“Thus, at the beginning of April, the currency market will maintain relative calm, and any factors that could fundamentally affect this quite comfortable situation for both buyers and sellers are currently absent,” Lesovyi concluded.
Euro Exchange Rate and Expectations for Next Week
The expert also drew attention to the euro exchange rate. He reminded that the US customs restrictions on aluminum and steel have impacted EU countries, prompting corresponding actions from the European Union.
According to the banker’s forecasts, from March 31 to April 6, the corridors for currency changes will be:
- 41.4-42 UAH per dollar in the interbank and cash markets;
- 44.5-45.5 UAH per euro;
- The average difference between interbank and cash market rates will be 0 UAH;
- Expected exchange rate deviations within 1-1.5% from Monday’s rate.