The economic situation unfolding around the world will significantly impact the dynamics of the euro/dollar pair in international markets, and consequently, the euro exchange rate in Ukraine. It is also necessary to consider the new unpredictable statements from Donald Trump, which could provoke a swift reaction from investors and global financial markets. This makes the markets vulnerable to such remarks from the American president, adding uncertainty and nervousness. Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev discusses this in his forecast for the week of May 26 to 30.
This is reported by Finway
Factors Influencing the Currency Market
Among the key Ukrainian factors that may affect the currency situation, it is worth noting the approaching end of the reporting period, which will provoke an increase in transaction volumes between clients and banks in the interbank market from May 28 to 30. Additionally, the impact of the situation on the front lines and Russia’s shelling of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure remains traditionally relevant, which always negatively affects the sentiments of currency market participants, especially in the cash segment.
Forecasts for the Week
Throughout the week, the daily transaction volumes in the interbank market via the Bloomberg system are expected to range from 155 to 230 million dollars. The least active day will be May 26, when, due to a public holiday in the United States, the Ukrainian interbank will operate on the TOM for the dollar. The most intense trading days will be May 28-30, when clients and banks will close their transactions and settlements with counterparties on the reporting date. Participation in NBU auctions is also expected almost daily.
According to forecasts, the corridor for the euro/dollar pair for the week will be between 1.125 and 1.145 dollars per euro. The quotes for non-cash dollars in the interbank market from May 26 to 30 will fluctuate between 41.30 and 41.75 hryvnias. Considering the recalculation of the euro/dollar and dollar/hryvnia pairs, the euro exchange rate in trading this week is likely to be between 46.46 and 47.80 hryvnias.
In the cash market, most exchange offices of financial companies and banks will operate with a spread of 20-30 kopecks for the dollar and euro. In the event of market fluctuations in the euro/dollar pair, financial companies may widen the spread for the euro to 25-60 kopecks. Wholesale exchange offices will offer their services with a spread of 15-20 kopecks.
The buying and selling rate of cash dollars in banks will fluctuate between 41.10 and 41.90 hryvnias, while in exchange offices, it will range from 41.15 to 41.80 hryvnias. As for cash euro rates, in banks, it will be between 46.25 and 47.95 hryvnias, and in exchange offices, from 46.40 to 47.85 hryvnias.