In 2026, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will continue to rise gradually, but sharp fluctuations are not expected. Thanks to the balanced policy of the National Bank, external financial support, and stable currency inflows from exports, the hryvnia remains relatively stable at present.
This is reported by Finway
Main Factors Influencing the Currency Market
According to fintech expert and co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions, Olena Sosiadka, both internal processes, including the situation at the front, and global factors will influence the exchange rate dynamics. Over the past few years, the dollar exchange rate has been maintained within limits that the National Bank artificially regulates due to the state of war. The expert predicts that in 2026, the hryvnia will experience moderate devaluation, and the exchange rate may reach 48 hryvnias per dollar.
“We see that over the past few years, the dollar has been holding within a range that is artificially regulated by the National Bank. This necessity is related to the war. Next year, we should expect moderate devaluation of the hryvnia. The exchange rate will fluctuate up to 48 hryvnias per dollar,” noted Olena Sosiadka.
Among the main risks to the stability of the exchange rate, she named possible delays in international financial inflows and a reduction in currency revenues from exports. Potentially negative impacts may also arise from logistics issues. At the same time, a significant positive factor could be the launch of large-scale infrastructure recovery programs involving foreign investors, which could attract additional currency resources to the country.
Euro Exchange Rate and Advice for Businesses and Citizens
As for the euro, its exchange rate is traditionally more prone to fluctuations, as it depends not only on the situation in Ukraine but also on the euro-to-dollar ratio in global markets. The European economy is currently showing a slowdown in growth rates, which may lead to a decline in the euro’s position relative to the dollar. In Olena Sosiadka’s opinion, in 2026, the euro exchange rate may reach 52 hryvnias.
The expert does not rule out possible changes in the euro’s dynamics: if the dollar’s value decreases in global markets, the euro may strengthen, which will be particularly relevant given the current situation in the USA.
Ukrainians and businesses are advised by the expert to consider cautious scenarios in their financial plans. The stability of the hryvnia is only possible with continued support from international partners and a balanced policy from the National Bank. The exchange rate of foreign currencies will rise gradually, which is natural for an economy undergoing a recovery phase after the war.
A key way to minimize risks, according to Olena Sosiadka, is asset diversification, which will help avoid significant losses for the state, businesses, and citizens. She recommends not to keep all funds in one financial instrument to protect financial opportunities.