In October 2025, the currency market in Ukraine demonstrates stability, and investors and citizens can expect the absence of sharp fluctuations in the coming week. According to Taras Lesovyi, the director of the financial markets and investment activities department at “Globus Bank,” from October 13 to 19, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market will remain within the range of 41.2–41.6 hryvnias, which is approximately 1–1.5% lower than at the beginning of the year.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of Global Trends and Stability Factors
The euro exchange rate will continue to be influenced by global trading of the dollar/euro pair. The main fluctuation is expected to be in the range of 48–49 hryvnias, and a breakout beyond 49 hryvnias is unlikely. According to Lesovyi, the ratio between the dollar and euro will remain in the corridor of 1.15–1.18, as in previous months, despite the presence of geopolitical and economic uncertainty in the world.
“The euro exchange rate, as in previous months, will primarily be based on global trading of the dollar/euro pair and the corresponding indicators of the hryvnia/dollar pair. Despite the prevailing geopolitical and economic uncertainty in the world, which directly affects the exchange rates of major currencies, we still tend to believe that in mid-October, the dollar to euro ratio will not change, remaining at 1.15-1.18. Of course, the euro exchange rate may fluctuate more actively than the dollar, but within the outlined limits, without provoking citizens to buy up euros,” says Lesovyi.
Key Factors Determining Exchange Rate Dynamics
- Strategy of the National Bank of Ukraine: the “managed flexibility” policy aims to prevent sharp and unpredictable changes in the exchange rate.
- Monetary Policy: maintaining the discount rate at 15.5% supports the hryvnia and mitigates inflationary risks.
- Economic Indicators: a high level of international reserves (over $46 billion), stable development of key sectors of the economy, and an acceptable level of consumer prices contribute to currency stability.
According to the banker’s forecast, the expected corridors on the interbank market are 41.2–41.6 UAH/USD and 48–49 UAH/EUR. In the cash market — 41.25–41.65 UAH/USD and 48–49.5 UAH/EUR. Daily exchange rate changes will amount to up to 0.05–0.15 UAH on the interbank market, up to 0.1–0.2 UAH in banks, and up to 0.3 UAH in exchange offices. The average difference between the interbank and cash rates will remain within 0.1–0.15 UAH. Throughout the week, exchange rate deviations will not exceed 1–1.5% from Monday’s starting point.
The expert emphasizes: in October, the currency market in Ukraine will maintain signs of stability and predictability, and current changes will not create risks of speculative demand for currency.