Next week, the currency market is expected to remain stable without significant fluctuations. Experts emphasize that there are currently no economic grounds for sharp currency changes. The dollar exchange rate is projected to be within 41.4-41.8 UAH/USD on the cash market.
This is reported by Finway
Taras Lesovyi, head of the treasury department at “Globuss Bank,” noted that “the NBU has taken monetary measures that significantly strengthen the hryvnia and reduce price pressure: this includes raising the discount rate to 15.5% and the rate on 3-month deposit certificates to 19%.” According to him, due to the strong hryvnia and favorable deposit conditions, citizens are more inclined to place their funds in hryvnia deposits, which allows them not only to index their funds against inflation but also to earn passive income.
Impact of the Agricultural Sector and Holiday Fluctuations
Lesovyi also pointed out the “managed flexibility” regime, which aims to balance supply and demand through currency interventions. This helps to reduce potential reasons for currency rate increases. As a result, current exchange rate changes remain minimal, and the difference between interbank and cash market rates has practically disappeared.
Moreover, ahead of the planting season, farmers are actively selling excess currency, which increases supply and reduces the regulator’s influence on the interbank market. With Easter approaching, an increase in supply on the cash market is also expected, as many citizens who keep their savings in foreign currency sell it to purchase necessary goods for the celebration.
Lesovyi emphasized that “despite the information noise related to the situation at the front, the issue of hypothetical peace and conditions for ending the war, we believe that relative calm will be maintained in the cash market. It can be said that society has already developed a certain ‘immunity’ to various types of information provocations.”
Forecasts for Currency Changes
Key indicators of the currency market from April 7 to April 13, according to the expert’s forecast, will be as follows:
- Exchange rates: 41.4-41.8 UAH/USD and 44.5-45.5 UAH/EUR on the interbank market;
- Average difference between interbank and cash market rates: 0 UAH;
- Weekly exchange rate fluctuations are expected to be within 1-1.5% of the initial Monday rate.
Lesovyi summarized that “by all indications, next week the exchange rate indicators will be identical to the previous ones, and the overall market dynamics will remain stable. Currently, there are no economic reasons for rapid currency changes.”