The Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, Matt Hougan, has once again confirmed his forecast regarding the potential growth of Bitcoin to the $1 million mark. In his new analytical article, he detailed why he considers such a scenario realistic under certain market conditions.
This is reported by Finway
Gold Market Analysis as a Benchmark for Bitcoin
Hougan argues his position based on the dynamics of the gold market. According to him, if the “store of value” market, which includes gold and Bitcoin, continues to grow and reaches a capitalization of $121 trillion, then Bitcoin could very well reach a price of $1 million. Under these conditions, Bitcoin’s share would need to be around 17% of the total capitalization, which, in the expert’s opinion, is an achievable figure in the long term.
“If this continues, and the capitalization of the ‘store of value’ reaches $121 trillion, such a price for Bitcoin seems realistic to him.”
Currently, the capitalization of the “store of value” market is approximately $38 trillion, with $36 trillion attributed to gold and $1.4 trillion to Bitcoin. However, according to Hougan, for Bitcoin to achieve the million-dollar price now, it would have to capture 50% of the market, which is unlikely under current conditions.
Growth Forecast and Key Factors
Hougan emphasizes that back in 2004, when the first gold ETF was launched, the capitalization of this market was only $2.5 trillion. Over the following years, the market grew at an average rate of 13% annually, reaching $36 trillion. If such dynamics are extrapolated, by 2036, the capitalization of the “store of value” market could reach $121 trillion, and Bitcoin would only need to capture 17% of that amount to achieve the projected price.
- The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 significantly impacted demand for BTC.
- Investors and financial advisors recommend increasing Bitcoin’s share in portfolios from 1% to 5%.
- Large capital holders, including sovereign funds, are showing interest in the asset.
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and until March 2026, its capitalization has increased by approximately 55% — from $860 billion to $1.39 trillion, peaking at $2.5 trillion.
At the same time, Hougan points out an important nuance: the active growth of the “store of value” market over the past two decades has been driven by economic instability, crises, and wars. If such factors do not recur, the gold market may face a correction. However, the expert believes that such forecasts are overly cautious, and the market could grow even faster, which in turn would strengthen Bitcoin’s position and increase its price.