In May 2026, Ukrainian businesses demonstrated a third consecutive increase in positive assessments of their economic activities, both compared to the previous month and in annual terms. These trends are reflected in the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which is calculated monthly by the National Bank.
This is reported by Finway
Growth in Most Sectors and Reasons for Optimism
The overwhelming majority of surveyed business sectors noted improvements due to the stable functioning of the energy sector, the influx of international financial aid, increased consumer demand, reduced inflation expectations, and seasonal factors.
In May 2026, the BAEI stood at 52.1 points, exceeding the April figure of 51.7 and the May index of 2025 (50.8).
Dynamics in Key Economic Sectors
- Construction. Enterprises in this sector have demonstrated the highest business activity ratings for the third consecutive time — the sector index in May was 55.3 (in April — 55.6, in May 2025 — 51.5). The main factors included budget financing for road construction, infrastructure recovery, high domestic demand, and seasonality.
- Industry. Thanks to robust demand and stable energy operations, the sector index in May rose to 52.4 from 51.5 in April (51.1 in May 2025).
- Services. Positive dynamics were ensured by improvements in the energy system and increased demand: the sector index in May was 53.1 compared to 52.0 in April and 50.9 in May 2025.
- Trade. Only this sector maintains cautious business activity ratings. The main reasons were rising fuel prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and increased business costs. The sector index in May was 49.6 (in April — 50.8, in May 2025 — 50.3).
Respondents from all sectors expect a slowdown in the growth of purchasing prices, raw material and material costs, as well as prices and tariffs for their own products and services and for goods for resale.
“The labor market situation remains unstable. Respondents from construction and trade maintained expectations for an increase in the total number of employees, while enterprises in the services sector, and especially in industry, were inclined towards further staff reductions,” noted the NBU.