In April 2026, Ukrainian companies continue to demonstrate positive assessments of business activity, although the overall index of business activity expectations, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, has decreased from 52.7 points in March to 51.7 in April.
This is reported by Finway
“Despite this, the indicator remains above the neutral threshold. This means that the economy continues to move in a mode of cautious recovery rather than decline.”
Key Factors Influencing Business Expectations
Several important factors influence the formation of business expectations. Among them are stable volumes of international support coming to Ukraine, a revival of domestic demand, an increase in budget expenditures for infrastructure reconstruction, as well as a seasonal rise in economic activity.
- Regular international assistance contributes to business confidence in the stability of financial flows.
- The recovery of domestic demand supports sales and stimulates production.
- Government spending on infrastructure creates new opportunities for companies, especially in the construction sector.
- Seasonal activation of the economy traditionally has a positive impact on the performance of enterprises.
Cost Pressures and Sectoral Features
Alongside positive trends, Ukrainian businesses are facing a number of challenges. Enterprises report an increase in fuel and raw material costs, which raises production costs. There are also ongoing logistics issues due to infrastructure damage, a shortage of personnel is felt, and inflationary and currency pressures are intensifying.
- The rising cost of resources complicates production activities.
- Logistics disruptions affect the timeliness of deliveries.
- The shortage of skilled workers hinders the growth of certain sectors.
- The strengthening of inflationary and currency pressures creates additional uncertainty for planning.
The construction industry currently demonstrates the greatest optimism: companies expect an increase in orders and plan to increase purchases. The industrial sector maintains stability, mainly due to steady demand and support from the energy sector. In the trade sector, a more cautious approach to assessing future sales is observed, while the service market maintains positive expectations, albeit without significant acceleration in development.
Some enterprises, particularly in construction and trade, plan to expand their workforce; however, most sectors are cautiously approaching changes due to the uncertainty of the economic situation.
Thus, Ukrainian businesses in May 2026 operate under conditions of “controlled optimism”: sentiments remain positive, but the number of factors for rapid economic growth is decreasing.