Recently, there have been many assumptions regarding a possible end to the war in Ukraine before November, considering the electoral campaign in the US. Some of these theories claim that the incumbent US President Trump is interested in a quick resolution of the conflict to boost the Republican Party’s chances in the Congressional and Senate elections. The most radical versions even propose the idea of a secret deal between Trump and Putin for a temporary ceasefire to ensure a Republican victory.
This is reported by Finway
Limitations of US influence on Russia
However, such scenarios are far from reality for several reasons. Firstly, Trump has virtually no effective levers of influence over the Russian Federation that could compel Putin to immediately end the war. There are no real mechanisms for this, regardless of political statements in the US.
“Putin cannot simply end the war like that. No one in Russia would understand it. Neither the people nor the elites. Not even the anti-war activists. Such a stop would mean that Putin is incredibly weak. And he cannot afford that. Therefore, all these stories about agreements with Trump are mythical.”
Moreover, even if Putin suddenly decided to end the war, such a decision would be incomprehensible and unacceptable to Russian society and political elites. It would provoke a crisis of authority for the Russian leader, and he is not willing to risk his own power for the sake of foreign policy agreements.
The impact of the US elections and geopolitical factors
Another important aspect is the political situation in the US. Even a Democratic victory in both chambers of Congress could, on the contrary, be beneficial for Putin, as it would increase political instability and turbulence in the United States. The Ukrainian factor is not decisive in the electoral dynamics of the US, so its influence should not be overestimated.
Additionally, the issue of energy security remains critical. Until the problem of opening the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, Trump has no sufficient reasons to pressure Russia. Russian oil partially compensates for the oil deficit from the Persian Gulf, which affects the balance of interests worldwide.
Regarding possible peace negotiations, Putin may agree to a temporary freeze of the conflict only under significant external pressure. Such pressure could only be exerted by China or jointly by China and the US. At this stage, the negotiation process is minimally dependent on the US elections, and there are no realistic preconditions for ending the war before November.
The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the position of the editorial board. The responsibility for the published data in the “Opinions” section lies with the author.