Bitcoin may lose a significant portion of its value and decline to around $10,000, according to Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. The expert believes that Bitcoin is currently under pressure as the market has already utilized the main positive factors, and the current price of the leading cryptocurrency lacks sufficient fundamental support.
This is reported by Finway
Structural Changes in the Market and Behavior of Bitcoin Holders
In his post on social media platform X, McGlone commented on remarks made by Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor, who emphasized that the company is buying Bitcoin using capital it cannot afford to lose. The Bloomberg analyst reminded that Strategy was one of the key drivers of Bitcoin’s growth in 2020 when its price approached the $10,000 mark.
“Strategy was one of the catalysts for Bitcoin’s powerful rally in 2020 when its price was near $10,000.”
According to K33, the last two years have been a period of significant structural shift in the behavior of early Bitcoin holders. During this time, about 20% of the entire BTC supply was reactivated — nearly 1.6 million coins, which are currently valued at $138 billion based on market prices. Experts believe this is one of the largest waves of distributing long-term supply in Bitcoin’s history, second only to 2017. In 2025, K33 estimates that Bitcoin older than one year was reactivated for about $300 billion.
Increasing Competition and Changing Market Models
McGlone also highlighted changes within the cryptocurrency industry itself. While in 2009 there was only one digital asset — Bitcoin, today there are approximately 28 million cryptocurrencies listed on CoinMarketCap.
In this context, the analyst does not rule out the possibility that Bitcoin could return to levels from which the previous significant growth began. At the same time, this is not the first pessimistic forecast from McGlone: about two weeks ago, he predicted the likelihood of a price correction for Bitcoin to $50,000, considering the asset overvalued relative to gold.
On the other hand, on-chain data indicates a change in the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders. According to Glassnode, the volume of BTC held at addresses of long-term holders (those holding coins for at least 155 days) has decreased to 14,342,207 BTC — the lowest level in the past eight months. This decrease in volume coincided with a price correction of nearly 40% from the historical high in October. The current decline has already become the third wave of distribution since the beginning of 2023.
Experts note that the current market cycle differs from the models of 2013, 2017, and 2021, when sales from long-term holders were concentrated around a single peak. As noted by Checkonchain co-founder Alek Deyanovich, the market this time demonstrates the ability to absorb repeated waves of selling even without a clearly defined point of euphoria.