Analysts at CryptoQuant have stated that Bitcoin has entered the late stage of a bull cycle, as indicated by key market indicators — NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and the realized capitalization structure. According to their estimates, the current market state is characterized by a high proportion of profitable investors and the emergence of new dominant players.
This is reported by Finway
Market Indicators: NUPL and Bitcoin Profitability
The current NUPL level has reached +0.52, which historically signals a transition from the optimism phase to euphoria. In past cycles, particularly in 2017 and 2021, similar values indicated that the majority of market participants were already in profit, contributing to increased speculative activity. At the same time, approximately 97% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin is currently in profit. This underscores a high level of confidence in the asset, but also indicates limited potential for further growth without a market consolidation period.
Change in Ownership Structure and Impact of Liquidity
“At the same time, short-term holders (STH) now account for 44% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization — the highest level in history. This means that long-term holders (LTH) are taking profits, while new market participants are increasingly dominating,” the report states.
Analysts noted that the increase in the share of short-term holders in the capitalization structure has previously coincided with peak market phases. However, the current situation is somewhat different: the increase in liquidity in stablecoins, the influx of institutional capital, and stable investments in Bitcoin ETFs are partially offsetting selling pressure. Experts emphasize that the market is in a “mature speculative phase,” supported by external liquidity flows. The further development of the situation will depend on the reduction of the share of short-term players, which could signal a return of long-term investors and the beginning of a new accumulation phase.
Previously, Citigroup noted that Bitcoin remains dependent on the dynamics of the stock market.