The aSOPR indicator for Bitcoin has once again decreased to the level of 0.92–0.94, signaling a return of the market to a bearish phase. Despite this, experts do not see clear signs of mass capitulation among participants.
This is reported by Finway
What Does the Decline in aSOPR Mean for Bitcoin
The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) reflects whether owners are moving their Bitcoins on the blockchain at a profit or a loss. If its value drops below 1, it indicates that coins are being sold at a loss. According to analysts, aSOPR is currently within the range of 0.92–0.94, which is typical for periods of increased stress in a bear market.
In past cycles, such aSOPR values often coincided with phases of deep market corrections and mass realization of losses. During these periods, sellers intensified their pressure, and the market experienced a structural “cleansing” after a series of price declines.
Historical Reversals and Current Market Situation
Currently, unlike mid-cycle corrections when aSOPR quickly returned to one, the current decline in this indicator may indicate a more prolonged phase of weakness. If aSOPR does not return to the value of 1 soon, the likelihood of the market transitioning from a correction phase to a prolonged bear phase only increases.
“Sustainable market reversals have often occurred when aSOPR was deeply compressed, the realization of losses peaked, and selling pressure gradually diminished.”
At present, the market is entering what is known as the “stress zone,” yet analysts do not currently observe clear signs of extreme capitulation. Experts note that historically, the formation of a bottom has been accompanied by a peak level of loss realization and a gradual decrease in selling pressure.
In the context of the market situation, Samson Mow, founder of Jan3 and developer of the AQUA Wallet cryptocurrency wallet, previously referred to the current decline in Bitcoin as an anomaly, considering the bottom to be a stage that has already been passed.