Willy Woo, co-founder of Bitcoin Vector and Crest, expressed a moderately optimistic forecast for Bitcoin in January-February 2026, while also warning of the likelihood of a bear market in 2026 due to declining liquidity in the market.
This is reported by Finway
Expectations for Bitcoin and Liquidity Dynamics
According to the analyst, internal investor flow models recorded a local minimum on December 24, 2025, after which the indicators began to gradually improve. Woo notes that historically, the market needs two to three weeks to reflect such changes in the asset’s price.
The expert also pointed out the recovery of activity in the futures markets. He stated that paper liquidity, which had remained low for an extended period, has started to rise. A similar dynamic was observed in mid-2021 before the emergence of the second price peak of that cycle.
Key Levels and Long-Term Forecast
From a technical perspective, Woo identified the range of $98,000–$100,000 as the main resistance zone for Bitcoin. If the price convinces the market with a breakout of this level, further attention will be focused on the asset’s reaction to its historical high.
“Since January of last year, liquidity flows have gradually weakened relative to the price momentum. This indicates the formation of an ‘overheated zone’ without sufficient capital support,” emphasized Willy Woo.
He remains cautious about the prospects for 2026, as current liquidity trends do not support price momentum. In the analyst’s opinion, only a sharp increase in spot liquidity in the coming months could change the situation and reverse the downward trend.
Woo highlighted that a confirmed bear market has not yet been recorded. According to his assessment, a sign of the beginning of such a market would be sustained capital outflows, which are traditionally a lagging signal of the market cycle peak.
Additionally, according to Glassnode data, the activity of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) is slowing down, and the market is gradually absorbing the supply that has been held in wallets for an extended period.