The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has approved a new medium-term forecast for the economic and social development of the country for 2026-2028, which considers two possible scenarios for future developments. The document outlines different GDP growth rates depending on the security situation in the country.
This is reported by Finway
Optimistic and Pessimistic Economic Scenarios
According to the optimistic scenario, which is based on a significant improvement in the security environment starting in 2026, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, 5% in 2027, and 5.7% in 2028. Meanwhile, the pessimistic scenario, which takes into account the likelihood of ongoing active hostilities throughout the next year, forecasts more modest growth: 2.4% in 2026, 4.7% in 2027, and 4.5% in 2028.
Forecast for Salary Levels
The Ministry of Finance expects significant growth in the average salary in Ukraine under both scenarios. It is predicted that in 2026, the average salary will exceed 30,000 UAH ($725.8), in 2027 it will be around 35,000 UAH ($846.8), and in 2028 it will reach nearly 40,000 UAH ($967.7). For comparison, preliminary estimates suggest that the average salary in 2025 will be 24,400 UAH ($590.3).
The optimistic scenario anticipates a significant improvement in the security situation starting in 2026, which will ensure GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026, 5% in 2027, and 5.7% in 2028.
It is worth noting that last year, Ukraine’s economy showed a growth of 2.9%. At the same time, the previous government forecast for 2025 predicts a slight slowdown in GDP growth dynamics to 2.7%.