In the coming years, Ukraine expects significant growth in the export of goods and services, which will exceed the pace of imports. This conclusion was made by the Deputy Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, during a briefing on the NBU’s monetary policy.
This is reported by Finway
Balance of Payments Deficit and Twin Deficits
Recently, the National Bank of Ukraine presented an updated forecast regarding the balance of payments deficit. According to estimates, in 2026, its volume will be about 40 billion dollars, and in 2027, it may rise to over 49 billion dollars. This increase is explained by the expected rise in the budget deficit from 14% to 18% of GDP in 2027, according to the government forecast.
“These processes are, of course, interconnected. We are talking about the so-called twin deficit situation, where the deficit in the budget sector, caused by the war, overlaps with higher import needs, particularly for arms, energy resources, and energy equipment. At the same time, when discussing the composition of this deficit, we expect that the growth rates of exports in the medium term will outpace the rates of import growth. In other words, the situation will improve,” said Lepushynskyi.
Funding Resilience and the Role of the Agricultural Sector
According to Lepushynskyi, Ukraine has stable sources of funding, as international assistance is provided on concessional or grant terms, which enhances the resilience of the country’s financial situation. He emphasized that overall, the situation remains manageable despite the growing deficit.
Evidence of the positive dynamics of exports is the statistics from the first quarter of 2026: Ukraine exported 15.5 million tons of agricultural products worth 6.3 billion dollars. The share of the agricultural sector in the export structure was 62%, highlighting its key role in forming the country’s foreign exchange earnings. Additionally, in recent years, Ukraine has established itself as a leading exporter of kefir to European Union countries.