Exports of goods and services from Ukraine in the coming years will demonstrate higher growth rates compared to imports. This forecast was announced by the Deputy Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, during a briefing on monetary policy.
This is reported by Finway
Changes in the Balance of Payments Deficit Forecast
According to Lepushynskyi, the revision of the forecast regarding Ukraine’s balance of payments deficit is related to updated government expectations regarding the budget deficit in 2027. In particular, the budget deficit may increase from 14% to 18% of GDP, which will affect the overall balance of payments deficit, rising from about $40 billion this year to over $49 billion in 2027.
He emphasized that these changes reflect the situation of the so-called double deficit, where the budget deficit caused by the war is combined with increased needs for the import of weapons, energy resources, and energy equipment. At the same time, it is expected that the medium-term growth rates of exports will exceed the rates of import growth, which will positively impact macroeconomic stability.
“These processes are, of course, interconnected. This refers to the so-called double deficit situation, where the deficit in the budget sector, caused by the war, overlaps with higher import needs, particularly for weapons, energy resources, and energy equipment. At the same time, when it comes to the composition of this deficit, we expect that the growth rates of exports in the medium term will outpace the rates of import increase. In other words, the situation will improve,” said Lepushynskyi.
Funding Resilience and the Role of International Aid
The Deputy Head of the NBU emphasized that Ukraine continues to receive stable support from international partners. All funds are provided on concessional or grant terms, ensuring the resilience of the financial system even under conditions of high balance of payments deficit.
The Head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshny, previously noted that thanks to international aid, the current account deficit does not pose critical risks to the economy. Financial support from international partners is viewed not only as support for Ukraine but also as an investment in its own security. A significant portion of these funds is directed towards supporting the economy, increasing imports, ensuring the country’s defense capability, stabilizing the energy system, and recovery processes.