In February 2026, the share of illegal tobacco trade in Ukraine was 17.6%. According to the State Customs Service, this figure shows a slight but gradual decrease compared to October of the previous year, when the level of the illegal market reached 17.8%.
This is reported by Finway
Reduction of Cigarette Smuggling
The segment of smuggled products continues to decline as well. If in the previous period smuggling accounted for 1.1% of the tobacco market, in February 2026 this figure dropped to 0.9%. This indicates not only a reduction in small-scale illegal trade but also increased difficulties for organized channels of cigarette supply across the border.
Results of Strengthened Customs Control
In the first three months of 2026, Ukrainian customs officials seized 411,000 cigarettes with a total value of approximately 3.7 million UAH. Representatives of the State Customs Service emphasize that such results were made possible by intensified control and targeted efforts in the most risky areas of goods movement.
“One in six cigarettes on the Ukrainian market is sold outside legal distribution channels.”
Experts highlight that the tobacco market is gradually responding to the strengthening of customs and border control, changes in logistics routes, and increased risks for illegal operators. However, the structure of the shadow market remains quite resilient, hindering further reductions in the volume of illegal trade.
Starting from the second quarter of 2026, the tobacco market in Ukraine will operate under a revised formula for calculating excise tax. According to the explanation from the State Tax Service, from April 1 to December 31, 2026, manufacturers and importers of cigarettes will be required to multiply the minimum excise tax obligation by a coefficient of 1.1. This is expected to contribute to further market regulation and a decrease in the share of illegal products.