The Russian reserve fund, known as the “National Welfare Fund,” has experienced a significant reduction during the full-scale war, losing nearly four times its volume. Despite attempts by the Kremlin to conceal the real state of affairs, the economic situation in the Russian Federation continues to deteriorate. It is estimated that by 2026, this fund could be completely depleted.
This is reported by Finway
Dynamics of Reserves and Threats to the Budget
At the beginning of July 2022, the liquid part of the Russian reserve fund amounted to $145 billion. A year later, in July 2023, this figure decreased to $78 billion, and by May 1, 2025, only $39 billion remained. Thus, since the beginning of the full-scale war, the fund has shrunk almost fourfold.
The main source of replenishment for the fund remains oil exports; however, Western sanctions have significantly limited Russia’s ability to access traditional markets. Alternative logistical routes have proven ineffective and led to increased costs. According to forecasts, in 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil will be $64 per barrel, and in 2026, it will be $60, creating critical risks for Russia’s budget, which depends on oil and gas revenues.
Impact on Key Sectors and Prospects
As a result of financial constraints, strategic sectors of the Russian economy are already suffering. Projects of the state corporation “Rosatom,” planned for 2025, are underfunded by 80%. The volumes of transportation by “Russian Railways” have significantly declined, and there is a decrease in production in the mining, metallurgy, and construction sectors. Additionally, Russian corporations are massively halting dividend payments.
“Problems are already reflected in key sectors. For instance, projects of the state corporation ‘Rosatom,’ planned for 2025, remain underfunded by 80%, ‘Russian Railways’ is experiencing a decline in transportation volumes, and there is a drop in production in the mining, metallurgy, and construction sectors, with Russian corporations widely suspending dividend payments. All of this indicates significant budget constraints and a loss of financial maneuverability even in strategic industries,” noted the Foreign Intelligence Service.
Despite attempts by Russian propaganda to hide the real scale of the economic downturn, it is evident that the resource-based model of the Russian economy is losing its effectiveness. If current restrictions remain in place and control over circumventing oil sanctions tightens, Russia risks completely losing its financial cushion by 2026.