In May 2026, revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation from oil and gas exports may increase by nearly 40% compared to the same period last year, amounting to about 700 billion rubles. This forecast is based on analytical calculations that take into account the situation in the global energy market.
This is reported by Finway
Impact of geopolitical events on Russia’s energy revenues
The increase in revenues is linked to rising global oil prices. The market is experiencing heightened volatility due to the war in Iran and the crisis in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. The oil and gas sector accounts for approximately 20% of the total budget revenues of the Russian Federation, highlighting its key role in the country’s financial stability.
Revenue dynamics throughout the year
Despite the expected increase in May, revenues from oil and gas are likely to decrease by about 17% compared to April 2026. This is explained by the specifics of the tax payment schedule and an increase in government subsidies for the oil refining industry.
Overall, in the first five months of 2026, total oil and gas revenues in Russia decreased by nearly one-third compared to the same period in 2025, amounting to about three trillion rubles.
“In 2025, oil and gas revenues in the Russian budget decreased by 24% – to 8.5 trillion rubles, the lowest level since 2020.”