Russia is actively increasing its production and supply of ammunition, showing signs of preparation for potential military conflicts in the future. The Estonian intelligence report notes that during 2022-2023, the Russian military-industrial complex revived previously unused production capacities for ammunition manufacturing. By the end of 2025, Russian factories produced over 7 million shells, mortar rounds, and rockets, significantly more than the 4.5 million in 2024. Overall, the production volumes of artillery ammunition have increased more than 17 times compared to 2021.
This is reported by Finway
Ammunition Imports and Strategic Reserves
In addition to active domestic production, Russia imported between 5 to 7 million shells from Iran and North Korea. The role of North Korean ammunition was particularly notable in the second half of 2025, as it accounted for about half of the needs of Russian troops on the front lines. Thus, Russia was able to significantly replenish its strategic reserves even while continuing the war against Ukraine.
“Given this, Russia is likely to be able to replenish part of its strategic reserves of artillery ammunition even during the war against Ukraine. For the Kremlin, maintaining such reserves is almost certainly a critical element in planning for potential future conflicts,” the document states.
NATO Strengthening in the Arctic
For its part, NATO has deployed Operation “Arctic Guardian” in the Arctic, aimed at preventing the strengthening of Russian military presence in the region and stopping Russian nuclear submarines from penetrating into the waters of the Atlantic Ocean. As part of this operation, the Alliance plans to enhance maritime patrols in the Faroe-Icelandic Gap, located between Greenland, Iceland, and Britain. Should Russian submarines manage to reach the Atlantic, it would significantly reduce the flight time of nuclear missiles to U.S. territory.