The economy of the Russian Federation has officially entered a phase of stagnation, as evidenced by a sharp deterioration in key macroeconomic indicators. According to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, after a GDP growth of 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, this figure dropped to 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025. This trend indicates a deep crisis that can no longer be concealed by official rhetoric, statements from government officials, or the Central Bank of Russia.
This is reported by Finway
Budget Deficit and Declining Oil and Gas Revenues
The budget deficit is currently being felt not only at the federal level but also at the regional levels. The Russian population will have to live under financial constraints at least until 2042. One of the main reasons for this situation is the significant reduction in revenues from oil and gas sales: income from energy resources is expected to decrease by 43% compared to 2019. Analysts estimate that this will be the main factor in the future economic degradation of the aggressor country.
“Such a trajectory indicates not temporary difficulties but a deep and prolonged degradation of the economy. Russia is entering a decade where recovery is unlikely, and financial losses are inevitable,” the intelligence agency commented.
Reduction of Parallel Imports and Strengthening of Sanctions
At the same time, the last functioning channel for the supply of Western goods to Russia has also begun to close. The volumes of so-called “parallel imports,” which were introduced after the start of the full-scale aggression against Ukraine, have nearly halved in 2025. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, from January to November 2025, goods worth $20.9 billion were imported into the country through the parallel import mechanism – this is 45% less than in the same period of 2024 ($37.9 billion).
Analysts emphasize that Russia’s war against Ukraine has not only failed to bring strategic benefits to Putin but has also significantly exacerbated internal, economic, and international problems for Russia. It is expected that in 2026 these challenges will only intensify: further declines in oil revenues, an increase in the budget deficit, social instability, and rising discontent among the population are forecasted.